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Showing posts from July, 2024

Nufflenomics: How Mighty is your Blow?

I’ve always thought that Mighty Blow is a good skill to take, especially in league play as it will allow you to rack up the SPP from casualties to quickly gain the other skills that your play would want. Then I started to take it a lot (especially on black orcs) and felt like it wasn’t getting used very much. I decided to investigate what the actual impact is on armour rolls made. The first thing we need it the comparison numbers. These will allow us to see the affect of mighty blow on the rolls made. These can be calculated by looking at how many times armour is broken, and then multiplying that by the likelihood of a stunned, knocked out or casualty result. The table below shows this for players of all armour values. AV Break % Stun % KO % Cas % 6+ 72% 42% 18% 12% 7+ 58% 34% 15% 10% 8+ 42% 24% 10%

Nufflenomics: The High Elf Thrower

 An interesting question arose yesterday when I was practicing High Elves ahead of taking them to Thurdball. The thrower has a unique combination of skills – pass, cloudbuster and safe pass. We were looking at one turn strategies and, as my pass was intercepted, we were wondering whether due to the combination of skills it is better to throw a long pass rather than a quick pass. I will talk through the skills the thrower has and explain why this might be. Pass This should be familiar to most coaches – it allows re-rolling of a pass made by this player. The mathematical effect is to change the chance of success from - for a 2+ passer such as the high elf thrower – a 5 in 6 (83%) chance of success to a 35 in 36 (97%) chance of success. Safe Pass This is a skill that I would imagine is on the lower end of the most frequently picked skills list. It means that if a pass is fumbled (i.e. it a natural 1) then the ball is not dropped but remains in the hands of the passing player. It a